It’s common for investors to link their views on the stock market’s future to how much they like—or align with—a particular president. However, the data suggests otherwise. When we break down presidencies based on their average Gallup approval ratings, an interesting pattern emerges: the four most popular presidents saw average annualized stock market returns of […]
With just three weeks to go until the presidential election, it’s natural to see heightened concerns among clients and advisors. Many wonder if they should pull out of the market, fearing potential volatility or negative outcomes. But history shows us a different perspective. Market reactions to elections are often unpredictable, and trying to time your […]
Irritable Powell Syndrome After months of speculation, Fed chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC cut rates 50 basis points and indicated that more easing was to come. This was widely cheered by many who have been sitting on the sidelines waiting to buy a house thinking the cut by the Fed would reduce mortgages rates. […]
Yesterday, I discussed how 10-Year Treasury yields respond to the initial rate cut in a Fed easing cycle and its impact on consumers. Today, let’s take a deeper look at the connection between 10-year yields and 30-year mortgage rates following the beginning of a Fed easing cycle. Historically, the median change in longer-duration Treasury yields […]
When the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by fifty basis points last week, the bond market took notice. While many believe that the start of an easing cycle can signal a decline in yields across the board, it’s important to remember that not all bonds respond the same way. The short end of the yield […]
Today, the FOMC took a decisive step by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. While market predictions were leaning in this direction, most major banks had only anticipated a 25 basis point cut, making the actual decision somewhat more aggressive. Initial market reactions were mixed as participants digested the news, but ultimately, we saw […]
Investors and speculators alike are increasingly turning their attention to gold—and for good reason. Over the past two years, gold has surged by over 40%, outperforming even the S&P 500. Often viewed as both an inflation hedge and a safe haven during geopolitical uncertainty, gold continues to make it’s case for inclusion in investor’s portfolios. […]
This morning, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released their latest Small Business Optimism Index results, showing a rise of over 2 points to 93.7—surpassing consensus expectations and marking the highest level since February 2022. Small businesses are the backbone of job creation in the United States and are vital to our overall economy. […]
As the volatility of the week starts to shake out, it is important to focus on empirical data versus emotions. The question on everyone’s mind is whether this was a routine pullback or the start of something more concerning. While no single indicator can provide a definitive answer, it’s essential to take a mosaic approach […]
Yesterday, we witnessed a historical spike in the VIX, often referred to as the “Fear Gauge.” This index, which measures market expectations of near-term volatility in the S&P 500, recorded its second-largest one-day percentage increase in history. The only day with a larger spike since the index’s inception was February 5, 2018, when the S&P […]