A hot topic this weekend has been whether we’re in for a Black Monday-style crash following Friday’s aggressive selloff. For those unfamiliar, Black Monday refers to October 19, 1987, when the S&P 500 plunged over 20% in a single day—still the largest one-day drop in market history. This has fueled the old Wall Street saying: […]
We’ve all heard it: “Just buy an S&P 500 ETF, and you’re set.” There’s no denying that U.S. large caps have dominated for the past decade. But what if I told you that a non-crypto, mainstream, easily investable commodity has actually outperformed the S&P 500—even on a total return basis—over the past three years? The […]
It feels like small-cap stocks can’t catch a break compared to their large-cap counterparts—and recent history seems to agree. Over the past four years, large caps have outperformed small caps every single year. In fact, 2024 was especially striking, with large caps outpacing small caps by a whopping 13.3%—the largest gap since 1998. Looking back […]
With the S&P 500 closing January in the green, a powerful historical precedent was triggered—one known as the January Effect. Made famous by Yale Hirsch in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, this market phenomenon suggests: “As January goes, so goes the rest of the year.” Historically, when January is positive, the full year tends to follow […]
After steadily cooling through 2023 and 2024, inflation—measured by Core PCE—has begun trending higher again. On Friday, Core PCE came in at 2.79% year-over-year, marking the third straight month of elevated levels. While still below its long-term average, rising inflation can create headwinds for risk assets. What is Core PCE? It’s the Federal Reserve’s preferred […]
Earlier this week, the Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index hit yet another all-time high—the 22nd consecutive month of record-breaking prices. This index, which tracks home prices in 20 major U.S. cities, paints a clear picture: homeownership is becoming increasingly unattainable. 13 out of 20 cities in the index are at all-time highs, a discouraging reality […]
2024 was nothing short of extraordinary. The S&P 500 capped off the year with back-to-back 20%+ annual gains, a rare feat in market history. Domestic equities dominated international markets, and growth once again outperformed value in a commanding fashion. Will 2025 mirror last year? Unlikely. Since 1929, there has only been one streak of more […]
When a presidential inauguration occurs, the temptation to trade based on the day’s symbolism and emotion is strong. Optimists may expect the market to rally under the new administration, while pessimists brace for a downturn. But history tells us a different story. We analyzed 13 inauguration days since 1970, and the data is clear: Returns […]
When the Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut since 2020 last September, many market participants cheered. A loosening monetary policy seemed like the perfect catalyst for stock markets to continue their climb higher. And for equities, it delivered: the S&P 500 rose 3% into year-end following the announcement. But the bond market had other […]
If it feels like growth investing has been dominating the markets for a while, you’re absolutely right. Growth has continued to outpace value, marking a trend that’s been hard to ignore. But does this mean value investing is dead? Not so fast. Let’s zoom out: A Historical Perspective Since 2007, growth has outperformed value in […]