There’s been a lot of discussion recently about the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio, especially after Friday’s reading came in at 0.45—a 10th percentile level. This means traders were buying far more calls than puts, a sign of excessive optimism. As a contrarian indicator, this excites the bears. The logic is simple: when everyone is positioned […]
The latest U.S. Census Bureau data shows building permits at 1.312M—the lowest since the COVID era and the fourth miss in five releases. As a leading indicator for the economy and real estate, this downward trend in permits is raising eyebrows. Why it matters: Declining permits often precede economic weakness and recessions. Historically, sustained drops […]
A friendly reminder: if you’re rooting for rate cuts, you’re also betting there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. Why does that matter? Because the path of outcomes is very different depending on what follows a rate cut. 🔹 Since 1974, the Fed has cut rates without a recession 5 times. In […]
September has a reputation—and not a great one—for investors. Since 1950, it’s the only month with a negative average return for the S&P 500. On top of that, it holds the lowest probability of finishing positive compared to any other month of the year. So yes, September can be a drag for markets. But let’s […]
The Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings (CAPE) ratio, developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, compares the S&P 500’s current price to the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. Why does it matter? Because valuations drive long-term returns. History shows: High CAPE → Lower future returns Low CAPE → Higher future returns This month, the CAPE Ratio hit nearly […]
As markets closed today, the S&P 500 notched its first five-day losing streak since April of last year. But not all losing streaks are created equal. Over the past five sessions, U.S. large caps are down just 1.52%. Unpleasant, yes — but hardly alarming. Since the last time we saw a streak this long, the […]
With the S&P 500 hitting fresh all-time highs this week, it’s natural for investors sitting on cash to hesitate. “Isn’t buying now just asking to get burned?” “Surely the market is due for a pullback…” This line of thinking feels logical—but it’s not supported by the data. One of the most persistent myths in investing […]
Everywhere you look right now, Bitcoin—and crypto more broadly—is back in the spotlight. And for good reason. As concerns over fiat currency and ballooning deficits grow louder, so too does interest in an alternative store of value. Pair that with increasing adoption and deepening institutional involvement in an asset with a fixed supply, and you […]
Historically, mid-July marks a seasonal peak for the S&P 500. From there, the market typically enters a choppy, rangebound phase that lasts until early November. Since 1970, this pattern has repeated often enough to earn a place in many investors’ playbooks. But this year? Far from typical. Back in April, the S&P 500 had one […]
The U.S. dollar closed the first half of 2025 down 10.8%, marking its weakest first-half performance since 1973. But let’s put this in perspective: prolonged periods of currency weakness are normal, driven by economic and geopolitical factors. This ebb and flow is just how currencies—and markets—work. Despite this dip, the U.S. dollar’s status as the […]