The S&P 500 closed Q3 up 7.8%, which is notable considering that Q3 is historically the weakest quarter of the year — averaging just 0.8% since 1950. By comparison, the other three quarters average between 2.1% and 4.2%. Since 1950, there have been 16 instances where the S&P 500 posted a Q3 gain of 7% […]
Bitcoin has officially entered its strongest month of the year — both in terms of average return and consistency of positive performance. Since 2014, October has delivered an average return of 18.2%, and Bitcoin has finished the month positive 83% of the time. That’s more than 3x the average monthly return over the same period. […]
With a +30% surge in the last three months—its best year since 2010—silver is turning heads. Yet, silver remains underinvested relative to gold. For context, the largest gold ETF (GLD) holds over 5x the assets of the largest silver ETF (SLV). But here’s the catch: silver’s strength is tempting investors to chase entries. Before jumping […]
Gold is having its strongest year since 1979. The big question now: what happens after the Fed’s recent rate cuts? History offers a useful framework: If a recession follows within 12 months, gold has meaningfully outperformed. If the economy avoids recession, gold has usually underperformed, as investors rotate back into risk assets supported by easier […]
There’s been a lot of discussion recently about the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio, especially after Friday’s reading came in at 0.45—a 10th percentile level. This means traders were buying far more calls than puts, a sign of excessive optimism. As a contrarian indicator, this excites the bears. The logic is simple: when everyone is positioned […]
The latest U.S. Census Bureau data shows building permits at 1.312M—the lowest since the COVID era and the fourth miss in five releases. As a leading indicator for the economy and real estate, this downward trend in permits is raising eyebrows. Why it matters: Declining permits often precede economic weakness and recessions. Historically, sustained drops […]
A friendly reminder: if you’re rooting for rate cuts, you’re also betting there won’t be a recession in the next 12 months. Why does that matter? Because the path of outcomes is very different depending on what follows a rate cut. 🔹 Since 1974, the Fed has cut rates without a recession 5 times. In […]
September has a reputation—and not a great one—for investors. Since 1950, it’s the only month with a negative average return for the S&P 500. On top of that, it holds the lowest probability of finishing positive compared to any other month of the year. So yes, September can be a drag for markets. But let’s […]
The Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings (CAPE) ratio, developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, compares the S&P 500’s current price to the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. Why does it matter? Because valuations drive long-term returns. History shows: High CAPE → Lower future returns Low CAPE → Higher future returns This month, the CAPE Ratio hit nearly […]
As markets closed today, the S&P 500 notched its first five-day losing streak since April of last year. But not all losing streaks are created equal. Over the past five sessions, U.S. large caps are down just 1.52%. Unpleasant, yes — but hardly alarming. Since the last time we saw a streak this long, the […]