The U.S. dollar closed the first half of 2025 down 10.8%, marking its weakest first-half performance since 1973. But let’s put this in perspective: prolonged periods of currency weakness are normal, driven by economic and geopolitical factors. This ebb and flow is just how currencies—and markets—work. Despite this dip, the U.S. dollar’s status as the […]
Despite hopes for relief, affordability remains elusive. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index posted its smallest year-over-year gain since 2023, suggesting some cooling. But the broader picture tells a tougher story: 🔹 Four cities still remain at all-time highs 🔹 Only two cities have seen prices fall vs. a year ago 🔹 To return […]
Last week’s retail sales print came in at +3.0% YoY — still in positive territory, but notably trending lower for the first time since mid-2023. Retail sales are one of the broadest and earliest reads on consumer behavior — and since consumption makes up the majority of U.S. economic activity, a trend shift here is […]
For context: that’s out of 8,913 trading days — an extreme move by any measure. But the real lesson here isn’t just about oil. It’s about adaptability. Earlier this month, I was long energy — and the position was working well. Then came the weekend: Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% […]
There’s been growing chatter that weakening air travel signals economic trouble ahead. But when you dig into the TSA data, the story looks quite different. Here’s why it matters: Airline travel is one of the clearest forms of discretionary spending — whether for business or leisure. People typically fly because they choose to, not because […]
CPI came in cooler than expected again today — the fifth consecutive month where monthly inflation has surprised to the downside. That’s undoubtedly welcome news for consumers and markets alike. But it’s important to keep perspective: inflation is cumulative. Month-over-month figures only compare today’s prices to last month’s — not to where we were a […]
Friday’s news of Moody’s downgrading U.S. debt? Retail investors saw it as a buying opportunity. According to JP Morgan’s Emma Wu, retail traders poured $4.1 billion into U.S. stocks in just the first three hours of trading on Monday — the largest single-morning inflow on record. That buying helped erase overnight losses, with the S&P […]
Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed lower—snapping a rare 9-day winning streak. If that feels like a big deal, it’s because it is. Historically, win streaks of this magnitude tend to happen when the market is in an uptrend, typically defined by trading above the 200-day moving average. But this streak occurred while the S&P was […]
If you feel exhausted after last month’s market action, you’re not alone. April delivered some of the most extreme volatility the S&P 500 has seen in decades: We kicked things off with a –12.1% drop in just four days — the 6th largest 4-day decline since 1950. Then came a +9.5% single-day gain, the 3rd […]
In November 2004, the first gold ETF (GLD) launched, now the world’s largest. Here’s a surprising fact: if you’d invested in GLD on that day instead of SPY (the largest S&P 500 ETF), your gold investment would be worth more today—even on a total return basis. For years, the mantra has been “diversification is dead” […]