Gold’s recent ~10% pulldown over the past few weeks may have rattled newer investors—and even seasoned ones. Sell-offs are part of the journey in any long-term allocation, but they can still test conviction. If you’re looking for something to steady the nerves, seasonality may help. Looking back at data since 1973, gold is now entering […]
The 10-day moving average of the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio has climbed to levels we last saw in April—back when the S&P 500 was bottoming. What’s notable today is the context: in April, this level of put buying occurred with the S&P down nearly 20%. This time, the index sits less than 4% below all-time […]
The S&P 500 crossed above its 50-day moving average on May 1st and stayed there until yesterday—200 calender days in total. If that sounds like a long run, it is. This marks the 5th-longest streak above the 50-DMA since 1950, and the longest since 2007. So what typically happens next?Historically, forward performance after long momentum […]
After its recent rally, many investors see silver as overextended — but a longer-term view paints a more nuanced picture. Looking at monthly data since 1973, silver has traded above its 10-month moving average nine times at levels higher than today. In three of those instances, the move stalled near current readings, while six saw […]
How Many Grains of Sand in a Pile? 2025 has been filled with multiple news stories downplaying ‘small’ private credit implosions and celebrations of the genius that AI brings to the US marketplace. While there were multiple little [$100-$200M] blowups that impacted major banks such as JP Morgan, Barclays and Fifth Third, there are three […]
On October 29th, 2025, a Hindenburg Omen appeared — one of the market’s most famous (and misunderstood) warning signals. Often viewed as a harbinger of market doom, the truth is more nuanced. A single Hindenburg Omen isn’t all that meaningful, but a cluster — typically five or more within a month (my definition) — has […]
Since 1950, the three-month stretch from November through January has been the strongest seasonal period for the S&P 500, with an average return of 4.4% — double the typical three-month average of 2.2%. Seasonality alone isn’t a trading signal, but it’s another data point in the mosaic of quantitative and historical factors that help shape […]
Yesterday was one of those rare market days that makes you stop and take notice. The S&P 500 closed positive on the day — yet market breadth was incredibly weak. How weak? In the past 27 years, there have been only 49 days when the index finished higher but the SPX Daily Advance-Decline Ratio was […]
Unless something dramatic happens in the next few hours, the S&P 500 will close at a new all-time high today — the first since October 8th. One of the most common questions I get from clients is:“Is it a good idea to invest at all-time highs?” The answer: absolutely, yes. So why does it feel […]
That’s the question every gold trader is asking right now. Yesterday, gold fell 5.3%, marking the 10th largest single-day loss since 1990 — and the largest in more than five years. What makes the move even more interesting is where it happened: while gold was above its 200-day moving average — in other words, still […]