Today, the S&P 500 surged 9.5%—marking the third-highest daily return since 1950. Moves like this aren’t typically seen in calm bull markets. Historically, the largest up days often occur during bear markets, closely following major selloffs. It’s the market’s way of violently recalibrating after intense structural repricing. At Bruce Wood Capital, we’ve been noting signs […]
Q1 2025 was a rollercoaster—tariff fears, inflation worries, geopolitical tensions, and a stock market correction dominated the headlines, painting a grim picture. But let’s zoom in: the market’s story isn’t as bleak as it seems. Our latest chart reveals a surprising bright spot: 8 out of 11 sectors outperformed the MSCI ACWI Index (the global […]
Congrats, bulls! After dipping below its 200-day moving average on March 10th, the S&P 500 reclaimed it yesterday—just 14 days later. Historically, that’s a fast recovery. Since 1970, outside of recessions, the S&P 500 has typically spent 23 days below the 200-day after crossing it, making this snapback notably swift. Even more impressive? The gains. […]
With the S&P 500 closing at 5521 yesterday, we’ve now dropped over 10% from all-time highs—meeting the official definition of a market correction. The key question: How much more downside is ahead? While no one knows for certain, history provides useful insights into what’s likely next. Corrections vs. Bear Markets: The state of the economy […]
Do you believe there has been—or soon will be—a significant, broad-based decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months? If so, you think we’re either in a recession or heading toward one. That’s not just opinion—that’s the official definition used by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the organization that formally declares recessions […]
As of yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 9.1% over just 15 trading sessions—marking the largest three-week drop since the COVID bear market. To put that into perspective, since 1990, this decline ranks in the top 1.5% of market drops over a similar timeframe. No doubt, this level of volatility is tough to stomach. […]
Market performance often follows seasonal patterns—known as seasonality—which, while not a stand-alone strategy, can offer valuable context for investors. Historically, stocks rally after the new year, peak by mid-February, and weaken until mid-March. Then? A sustained move higher. This year, the S&P 500 peaked on February 19 and has been declining since. If history repeats, […]
Last Thursday and Friday, the S&P 500 briefly dipped below its 200-day moving average (DMA)—but failed to close beneath it. Why does this level matter? Because historically, nothing good happens below it. Why the 200-Day Moving Average Matters The 200-DMA is simply the average price over the past 200 trading days. Markets tend to perform […]
A hot topic this weekend has been whether we’re in for a Black Monday-style crash following Friday’s aggressive selloff. For those unfamiliar, Black Monday refers to October 19, 1987, when the S&P 500 plunged over 20% in a single day—still the largest one-day drop in market history. This has fueled the old Wall Street saying: […]
We’ve all heard it: “Just buy an S&P 500 ETF, and you’re set.” There’s no denying that U.S. large caps have dominated for the past decade. But what if I told you that a non-crypto, mainstream, easily investable commodity has actually outperformed the S&P 500—even on a total return basis—over the past three years? The […]