The S&P 500 crossed above its 50-day moving average on May 1st and stayed there until yesterday—200 calender days in total. If that sounds like a long run, it is. This marks the 5th-longest streak above the 50-DMA since 1950, and the longest since 2007. So what typically happens next?Historically, forward performance after long momentum […]
After its recent rally, many investors see silver as overextended — but a longer-term view paints a more nuanced picture. Looking at monthly data since 1973, silver has traded above its 10-month moving average nine times at levels higher than today. In three of those instances, the move stalled near current readings, while six saw […]
On October 29th, 2025, a Hindenburg Omen appeared — one of the market’s most famous (and misunderstood) warning signals. Often viewed as a harbinger of market doom, the truth is more nuanced. A single Hindenburg Omen isn’t all that meaningful, but a cluster — typically five or more within a month (my definition) — has […]
Since 1950, the three-month stretch from November through January has been the strongest seasonal period for the S&P 500, with an average return of 4.4% — double the typical three-month average of 2.2%. Seasonality alone isn’t a trading signal, but it’s another data point in the mosaic of quantitative and historical factors that help shape […]
Yesterday was one of those rare market days that makes you stop and take notice. The S&P 500 closed positive on the day — yet market breadth was incredibly weak. How weak? In the past 27 years, there have been only 49 days when the index finished higher but the SPX Daily Advance-Decline Ratio was […]
Unless something dramatic happens in the next few hours, the S&P 500 will close at a new all-time high today — the first since October 8th. One of the most common questions I get from clients is:“Is it a good idea to invest at all-time highs?” The answer: absolutely, yes. So why does it feel […]
That’s the question every gold trader is asking right now. Yesterday, gold fell 5.3%, marking the 10th largest single-day loss since 1990 — and the largest in more than five years. What makes the move even more interesting is where it happened: while gold was above its 200-day moving average — in other words, still […]
Something extraordinary happened on Friday. On Thursday, the S&P 500 hit an intraday all-time high. By Friday’s close, it had dropped 2.7%. This kind of sharp selloff immediately following a record high is rare. Since 1950, there have only been 11 occasions where the S&P 500 hit an all-time high and then fell 2% or […]
The S&P 500 closed Q3 up 7.8%, which is notable considering that Q3 is historically the weakest quarter of the year — averaging just 0.8% since 1950. By comparison, the other three quarters average between 2.1% and 4.2%. Since 1950, there have been 16 instances where the S&P 500 posted a Q3 gain of 7% […]
Bitcoin has officially entered its strongest month of the year — both in terms of average return and consistency of positive performance. Since 2014, October has delivered an average return of 18.2%, and Bitcoin has finished the month positive 83% of the time. That’s more than 3x the average monthly return over the same period. […]