With the S&P 500 closing January in the green, a powerful historical precedent was triggered—one known as the January Effect. Made famous by Yale Hirsch in the Stock Trader’s Almanac, this market phenomenon suggests: “As January goes, so goes the rest of the year.” Historically, when January is positive, the full year tends to follow […]
After steadily cooling through 2023 and 2024, inflation—measured by Core PCE—has begun trending higher again. On Friday, Core PCE came in at 2.79% year-over-year, marking the third straight month of elevated levels. While still below its long-term average, rising inflation can create headwinds for risk assets. What is Core PCE? It’s the Federal Reserve’s preferred […]
Earlier this week, the Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index hit yet another all-time high—the 22nd consecutive month of record-breaking prices. This index, which tracks home prices in 20 major U.S. cities, paints a clear picture: homeownership is becoming increasingly unattainable. 13 out of 20 cities in the index are at all-time highs, a discouraging reality […]
2024 was nothing short of extraordinary. The S&P 500 capped off the year with back-to-back 20%+ annual gains, a rare feat in market history. Domestic equities dominated international markets, and growth once again outperformed value in a commanding fashion. Will 2025 mirror last year? Unlikely. Since 1929, there has only been one streak of more […]
When a presidential inauguration occurs, the temptation to trade based on the day’s symbolism and emotion is strong. Optimists may expect the market to rally under the new administration, while pessimists brace for a downturn. But history tells us a different story. We analyzed 13 inauguration days since 1970, and the data is clear: Returns […]
When the Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut since 2020 last September, many market participants cheered. A loosening monetary policy seemed like the perfect catalyst for stock markets to continue their climb higher. And for equities, it delivered: the S&P 500 rose 3% into year-end following the announcement. But the bond market had other […]
If it feels like growth investing has been dominating the markets for a while, you’re absolutely right. Growth has continued to outpace value, marking a trend that’s been hard to ignore. But does this mean value investing is dead? Not so fast. Let’s zoom out: A Historical Perspective Since 2007, growth has outperformed value in […]
2024 was a banner year for U.S. Large Cap stocks, with the S&P 500 outperforming International Developed equities (EAFE) by an impressive 22.5%. This extraordinary gap has many asking, “Is diversification dead?” 2024 in Context To truly appreciate the magnitude of last year’s performance disparity, consider this: since 1970, there have been only two other […]
Investing can be an emotional journey. In both rising and declining markets, it’s all too easy to fall into the trap of making emotional decisions—often at the worst possible times. That’s why sticking to a well-thought-out plan is crucial. Let’s look at the facts: The Odds Are in Your Favor Since 1929, the stock market […]
2024 has been a remarkable year. With the S&P 500 up nearly 30%, it has delivered the 5th most all-time highs since 1950 and back-to-back 20%+ gains for the first time since the 1990s. This exceptional performance warrants both celebration and caution. While 2025 may not mirror this level of success, the data doesn’t suggest […]