By Steve Bruce International equities quietly delivered a standout year in 2025. As measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, international stocks returned 27.9%, their strongest annual gain since 2003, and outperformed the S&P 500 by 11.5%—the largest relative advantage since 1993. For investors evaluating international equities vs. U.S. stocks, the magnitude of this shift deserves […]
By Steve Bruce Historically, the U.S. labor market has been one of the most reliable early warning signs of economic slowdowns. Rising unemployment has often preceded weaker growth—and eventually recessions. One commonly cited metric looks at when the unemployment rate (U3) rises above its 3-year moving average. Since 1950, that crossover has typically occurred near […]
The Q4 2025 U.S. Economic Dashboard highlights a resilient economy amid mixed signals, with real GDP growth accelerating to a 4.3% annual rate, fueled by robust consumer spending, export gains, and government support. Services and new orders showed sustained expansion, while manufacturing continued to contract, reflecting ongoing demand softness and labor challenges. Inflation trends remained […]
Hard to believe, but yes—2026 is already a midterm election year. Feels like we just wrapped up the last cycle, doesn’t it? Regardless of your politics, history shows these years often bring extra volatility and tempered returns to the stock market. Why? Heightened policy uncertainty as Congress gets reshuffled. Looking back since 1949: Midterm years—the […]
Shorting the dollar has been a standout winner of 2025—the USD was down almost 10%, and it’s slipped another ~1.2% just in December. No surprise everyone’s feeling pretty good about it right now. But here’s where seasonality throws a curveball. December has historically been the dollar’s roughest month, averaging about -0.9% (easily the weakest of […]
With 2025 officially in the books, it’s hard not to feel grateful for the remarkable run in U.S. equities. The S&P 500 finished the year up over 15% – marking three consecutive years of 15%+ gains (following strong performances in 2023 and 2024). This kind of streak is truly rare. Since 1950, the S&P 500 […]
The 30-year Treasury yield has broken the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern—a classic reversal signal in technical analysis. Since October, the long end of the yield curve has shown persistent upward pressure. It’s not unreasonable to anticipate the 30-year yield moving back above 5%, potentially testing the highs we saw earlier in […]
Gold’s recent ~10% pulldown over the past few weeks may have rattled newer investors—and even seasoned ones. Sell-offs are part of the journey in any long-term allocation, but they can still test conviction. If you’re looking for something to steady the nerves, seasonality may help. Looking back at data since 1973, gold is now entering […]
The 10-day moving average of the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio has climbed to levels we last saw in April—back when the S&P 500 was bottoming. What’s notable today is the context: in April, this level of put buying occurred with the S&P down nearly 20%. This time, the index sits less than 4% below all-time […]
The S&P 500 crossed above its 50-day moving average on May 1st and stayed there until yesterday—200 calender days in total. If that sounds like a long run, it is. This marks the 5th-longest streak above the 50-DMA since 1950, and the longest since 2007. So what typically happens next?Historically, forward performance after long momentum […]