The S&P 500 crossed above its 50-day moving average on May 1st and stayed there until yesterday—200 calender days in total. If that sounds like a long run, it is. This marks the 5th-longest streak above the 50-DMA since 1950, and the longest since 2007.
So what typically happens next?
Historically, forward performance after long momentum streaks is a mixed bag.
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1–6 month returns tend to be reasonably strong
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12-month returns are positive on average, but softer and far less consistent
Not terrible, but not a clear signal either.
What investors should expect is some near-term volatility after a break below the 50-DMA. These crossovers are notoriously noisy—only about 16% of breaches below the 50-DMA ultimately finish in negative territory.
Momentum has cooled, but history suggests the next move isn’t predetermined.
