Market performance often follows seasonal patterns—known as seasonality—which, while not a stand-alone strategy, can offer valuable context for investors.
Historically, stocks rally after the new year, peak by mid-February, and weaken until mid-March. Then? A sustained move higher.
This year, the S&P 500 peaked on February 19 and has been declining since.
If history repeats, this week is when markets tend to find their footing before moving higher.
Why Bulls Might Like This Setup:
Extreme VIX call and S&P put buying (signs of fear-driven hedging)
Investor sentiment is historically low—a classic contrarian signal
Seasonality suggests a near-term bottom is forming
While cautious optimism is warranted, our investment approach remains data-driven to minimize the risk of catastrophic losses. A further breakdown from here would change our stance—but for now, the weight of evidence suggests the bulls might have a case.
