By Steve Bruce Naturally, investors want to understand what history may suggest about future returns following periods like this. While markets never move in straight lines and past performance is not predictive, historical context can help frame expectations. Following those five prior instances of extraordinary three-year returns, the average subsequent three-year annualized return was approximately […]
By Steve Bruce International equities quietly delivered a standout year in 2025. As measured by the MSCI EAFE Index, international stocks returned 27.9%, their strongest annual gain since 2003, and outperformed the S&P 500 by 11.5%—the largest relative advantage since 1993. For investors evaluating international equities vs. U.S. stocks, the magnitude of this shift deserves […]
By Steve Bruce Historically, the U.S. labor market has been one of the most reliable early warning signs of economic slowdowns. Rising unemployment has often preceded weaker growth—and eventually recessions. One commonly cited metric looks at when the unemployment rate (U3) rises above its 3-year moving average. Since 1950, that crossover has typically occurred near […]
The Q4 2025 U.S. Economic Dashboard highlights a resilient economy amid mixed signals, with real GDP growth accelerating to a 4.3% annual rate, fueled by robust consumer spending, export gains, and government support. Services and new orders showed sustained expansion, while manufacturing continued to contract, reflecting ongoing demand softness and labor challenges. Inflation trends remained […]
Hard to believe, but yes—2026 is already a midterm election year. Feels like we just wrapped up the last cycle, doesn’t it? Regardless of your politics, history shows these years often bring extra volatility and tempered returns to the stock market. Why? Heightened policy uncertainty as Congress gets reshuffled. Looking back since 1949: Midterm years—the […]
Shorting the dollar has been a standout winner of 2025—the USD was down almost 10%, and it’s slipped another ~1.2% just in December. No surprise everyone’s feeling pretty good about it right now. But here’s where seasonality throws a curveball. December has historically been the dollar’s roughest month, averaging about -0.9% (easily the weakest of […]
With 2025 officially in the books, it’s hard not to feel grateful for the remarkable run in U.S. equities. The S&P 500 finished the year up over 15% – marking three consecutive years of 15%+ gains (following strong performances in 2023 and 2024). This kind of streak is truly rare. Since 1950, the S&P 500 […]