For context: that’s out of 8,913 trading days — an extreme move by any measure.
But the real lesson here isn’t just about oil. It’s about adaptability.
Earlier this month, I was long energy — and the position was working well. Then came the weekend:
Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% of global oil flows. Analysts rushed to predict $120/barrel crude.
Markets opened Monday… and sold off.
Later that day, Iran launched missiles at U.S. bases. What did energy markets do?
They sold off more.
None of it made sense — but that’s the point: markets don’t owe us logic.
As Ned Davis puts it: Would you rather be right or make money?
When something that “should” happen doesn’t — or worse, the opposite happens — it’s a powerful signal. The market is telling you the consensus is wrong.
I wasn’t nimble enough yesterday. I gave back a good chunk of gains. The market has a way of humbling even the most prepared.
Trading can be simple. But it’s never easy.
