Despite hopes for relief, affordability remains elusive. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index posted its smallest year-over-year gain since 2023, suggesting some cooling. But the broader picture tells a tougher story: 🔹 Four cities still remain at all-time highs 🔹 Only two cities have seen prices fall vs. a year ago 🔹 To return […]
Last week’s retail sales print came in at +3.0% YoY — still in positive territory, but notably trending lower for the first time since mid-2023. Retail sales are one of the broadest and earliest reads on consumer behavior — and since consumption makes up the majority of U.S. economic activity, a trend shift here is […]
For context: that’s out of 8,913 trading days — an extreme move by any measure. But the real lesson here isn’t just about oil. It’s about adaptability. Earlier this month, I was long energy — and the position was working well. Then came the weekend: Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% […]
There’s been growing chatter that weakening air travel signals economic trouble ahead. But when you dig into the TSA data, the story looks quite different. Here’s why it matters: Airline travel is one of the clearest forms of discretionary spending — whether for business or leisure. People typically fly because they choose to, not because […]
CPI came in cooler than expected again today — the fifth consecutive month where monthly inflation has surprised to the downside. That’s undoubtedly welcome news for consumers and markets alike. But it’s important to keep perspective: inflation is cumulative. Month-over-month figures only compare today’s prices to last month’s — not to where we were a […]