Two charts caught my attention recently:
- The number of new houses for sale that haven’t started construction, and
- The number of completed new houses for sale.
Both are eye-opening.
New houses for sale but not yet started represent the pipeline of future supply — the earliest stage of the new home process. In the latest data, this figure hit an all-time high.
Completed new houses for sale are typically spec homes — built without a signed buyer — and sit at the very end of the building process. Inventory here has surged to levels not seen since 2009.
So today, we have:
- A record number of homes in the early stages of planning and permitting,
- The highest level of completed, unsold homes in 15 years,
- And declining sales.
Layer in housing affordability — now worse than during the GFC, with the median housing payment at 47% of median income (an all-time high) — and there are real reasons to be concerned about the health of the U.S. housing market.
The cracks are forming. Are we paying close enough attention?
