Congrats, bulls! After dipping below its 200-day moving average on March 10th, the S&P 500 reclaimed it yesterday—just 14 days later. Historically, that’s a fast recovery. Since 1970, outside of recessions, the S&P 500 has typically spent 23 days below the 200-day after crossing it, making this snapback notably swift. Even more impressive? The gains. […]
With the S&P 500 closing at 5521 yesterday, we’ve now dropped over 10% from all-time highs—meeting the official definition of a market correction. The key question: How much more downside is ahead? While no one knows for certain, history provides useful insights into what’s likely next. Corrections vs. Bear Markets: The state of the economy […]
Do you believe there has been—or soon will be—a significant, broad-based decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months? If so, you think we’re either in a recession or heading toward one. That’s not just opinion—that’s the official definition used by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the organization that formally declares recessions […]
As of yesterday’s close, the S&P 500 was down 9.1% over just 15 trading sessions—marking the largest three-week drop since the COVID bear market. To put that into perspective, since 1990, this decline ranks in the top 1.5% of market drops over a similar timeframe. No doubt, this level of volatility is tough to stomach. […]
Market performance often follows seasonal patterns—known as seasonality—which, while not a stand-alone strategy, can offer valuable context for investors. Historically, stocks rally after the new year, peak by mid-February, and weaken until mid-March. Then? A sustained move higher. This year, the S&P 500 peaked on February 19 and has been declining since. If history repeats, […]
Last Thursday and Friday, the S&P 500 briefly dipped below its 200-day moving average (DMA)—but failed to close beneath it. Why does this level matter? Because historically, nothing good happens below it. Why the 200-Day Moving Average Matters The 200-DMA is simply the average price over the past 200 trading days. Markets tend to perform […]