September has a reputation—and not a great one—for investors. Since 1950, it’s the only month with a negative average return for the S&P 500. On top of that, it holds the lowest probability of finishing positive compared to any other month of the year. So yes, September can be a drag for markets. But let’s […]
The Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings (CAPE) ratio, developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, compares the S&P 500’s current price to the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. Why does it matter? Because valuations drive long-term returns. History shows: High CAPE → Lower future returns Low CAPE → Higher future returns This month, the CAPE Ratio hit nearly […]
As markets closed today, the S&P 500 notched its first five-day losing streak since April of last year. But not all losing streaks are created equal. Over the past five sessions, U.S. large caps are down just 1.52%. Unpleasant, yes — but hardly alarming. Since the last time we saw a streak this long, the […]
With the S&P 500 hitting fresh all-time highs this week, it’s natural for investors sitting on cash to hesitate. “Isn’t buying now just asking to get burned?” “Surely the market is due for a pullback…” This line of thinking feels logical—but it’s not supported by the data. One of the most persistent myths in investing […]
Everywhere you look right now, Bitcoin—and crypto more broadly—is back in the spotlight. And for good reason. As concerns over fiat currency and ballooning deficits grow louder, so too does interest in an alternative store of value. Pair that with increasing adoption and deepening institutional involvement in an asset with a fixed supply, and you […]
Historically, mid-July marks a seasonal peak for the S&P 500. From there, the market typically enters a choppy, rangebound phase that lasts until early November. Since 1970, this pattern has repeated often enough to earn a place in many investors’ playbooks. But this year? Far from typical. Back in April, the S&P 500 had one […]
The U.S. dollar closed the first half of 2025 down 10.8%, marking its weakest first-half performance since 1973. But let’s put this in perspective: prolonged periods of currency weakness are normal, driven by economic and geopolitical factors. This ebb and flow is just how currencies—and markets—work. Despite this dip, the U.S. dollar’s status as the […]
Despite hopes for relief, affordability remains elusive. The latest S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index posted its smallest year-over-year gain since 2023, suggesting some cooling. But the broader picture tells a tougher story: 🔹 Four cities still remain at all-time highs 🔹 Only two cities have seen prices fall vs. a year ago 🔹 To return […]
Last week’s retail sales print came in at +3.0% YoY — still in positive territory, but notably trending lower for the first time since mid-2023. Retail sales are one of the broadest and earliest reads on consumer behavior — and since consumption makes up the majority of U.S. economic activity, a trend shift here is […]
For context: that’s out of 8,913 trading days — an extreme move by any measure. But the real lesson here isn’t just about oil. It’s about adaptability. Earlier this month, I was long energy — and the position was working well. Then came the weekend: Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, where 20% […]