The 30-year Treasury yield has broken the neckline of an inverse head and shoulders pattern—a classic reversal signal in technical analysis. Since October, the long end of the yield curve has shown persistent upward pressure. It’s not unreasonable to anticipate the 30-year yield moving back above 5%, potentially testing the highs we saw earlier in […]
Gold’s recent ~10% pulldown over the past few weeks may have rattled newer investors—and even seasoned ones. Sell-offs are part of the journey in any long-term allocation, but they can still test conviction. If you’re looking for something to steady the nerves, seasonality may help. Looking back at data since 1973, gold is now entering […]
The 10-day moving average of the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio has climbed to levels we last saw in April—back when the S&P 500 was bottoming. What’s notable today is the context: in April, this level of put buying occurred with the S&P down nearly 20%. This time, the index sits less than 4% below all-time […]
The S&P 500 crossed above its 50-day moving average on May 1st and stayed there until yesterday—200 calender days in total. If that sounds like a long run, it is. This marks the 5th-longest streak above the 50-DMA since 1950, and the longest since 2007. So what typically happens next?Historically, forward performance after long momentum […]
After its recent rally, many investors see silver as overextended — but a longer-term view paints a more nuanced picture. Looking at monthly data since 1973, silver has traded above its 10-month moving average nine times at levels higher than today. In three of those instances, the move stalled near current readings, while six saw […]
How Many Grains of Sand in a Pile? 2025 has been filled with multiple news stories downplaying ‘small’ private credit implosions and celebrations of the genius that AI brings to the US marketplace. While there were multiple little [$100-$200M] blowups that impacted major banks such as JP Morgan, Barclays and Fifth Third, there are three […]
On October 29th, 2025, a Hindenburg Omen appeared — one of the market’s most famous (and misunderstood) warning signals. Often viewed as a harbinger of market doom, the truth is more nuanced. A single Hindenburg Omen isn’t all that meaningful, but a cluster — typically five or more within a month (my definition) — has […]
Since 1950, the three-month stretch from November through January has been the strongest seasonal period for the S&P 500, with an average return of 4.4% — double the typical three-month average of 2.2%. Seasonality alone isn’t a trading signal, but it’s another data point in the mosaic of quantitative and historical factors that help shape […]
Yesterday was one of those rare market days that makes you stop and take notice. The S&P 500 closed positive on the day — yet market breadth was incredibly weak. How weak? In the past 27 years, there have been only 49 days when the index finished higher but the SPX Daily Advance-Decline Ratio was […]
Unless something dramatic happens in the next few hours, the S&P 500 will close at a new all-time high today — the first since October 8th. One of the most common questions I get from clients is:“Is it a good idea to invest at all-time highs?” The answer: absolutely, yes. So why does it feel […]