Year: 2025

Q3 Strength Sets the Stage for Q4?

The S&P 500 closed Q3 up 7.8%, which is notable considering that Q3 is historically the weakest quarter of the year — averaging just 0.8% since 1950. By comparison, the other three quarters average between 2.1% and 4.2%. Since 1950, there have been 16 instances where the S&P 500 posted a Q3 gain of 7% […]
Read more

Seasonality Alert in Crypto Land

Bitcoin has officially entered its strongest month of the year — both in terms of average return and consistency of positive performance. Since 2014, October has delivered an average return of 18.2%, and Bitcoin has finished the month positive 83% of the time. That’s more than 3x the average monthly return over the same period. […]
Read more

Silver is shining in 2025!

With a +30% surge in the last three months—its best year since 2010—silver is turning heads. Yet, silver remains underinvested relative to gold. For context, the largest gold ETF (GLD) holds over 5x the assets of the largest silver ETF (SLV). But here’s the catch: silver’s strength is tempting investors to chase entries. Before jumping […]
Read more

Gold’s Big Year — What Comes Next?

Gold is having its strongest year since 1979. The big question now: what happens after the Fed’s recent rate cuts? History offers a useful framework: If a recession follows within 12 months, gold has meaningfully outperformed. If the economy avoids recession, gold has usually underperformed, as investors rotate back into risk assets supported by easier […]
Read more

U.S. Building Permits Signal Economic Caution

The latest U.S. Census Bureau data shows building permits at 1.312M—the lowest since the COVID era and the fourth miss in five releases.  As a leading indicator for the economy and real estate, this downward trend in permits is raising eyebrows. Why it matters: Declining permits often precede economic weakness and recessions. Historically, sustained drops […]
Read more

Wake Me Up When September Ends

September has a reputation—and not a great one—for investors. Since 1950, it’s the only month with a negative average return for the S&P 500. On top of that, it holds the lowest probability of finishing positive compared to any other month of the year. So yes, September can be a drag for markets. But let’s […]
Read more

The Shiller CAPE Ratio and future stock market returns

The Cyclically Adjusted Price/Earnings (CAPE) ratio, developed by Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, compares the S&P 500’s current price to the 10-year average of inflation-adjusted earnings. Why does it matter? Because valuations drive long-term returns. History shows: High CAPE → Lower future returns Low CAPE → Higher future returns This month, the CAPE Ratio hit nearly […]
Read more